After nearly four days of fierce fighting that risked the eruption of a war between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region in the South Caucasus, the two states agreed, on April 5th, 2016, to a ceasefire and returned to the truce that lasted for 22 years. Despite the fact that this agreement seems successful in halting fighting that erupted on April 2nd, and killed and injured tens from both sides; the continuation of skirmishes along the confrontation line between the Azerbaijanis and the Armenian-backed separatists might exacerbate the situation again in the near future.
Origins of the conflict and settlement attempts
The last round of Azerbaijani-Armenian fighting is considered one of the most violent confrontations for the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region since the 1994 truce. The origins of these confrontations date back to a century of competition between Christian Armenians, the Turks, and Persian Muslims. Armenia insists that this region, which belonged to the Russian Empire in the 19th century, was part of the ancient Christian kingdom, and supports this claim by the presence of ancient churches.
However, the Azerbaijani historians say that the churches were built by Albanian Christians, who are considered the ancestors of the Azerbaijani people, who have converted to Islam almost one thousand years ago. Despite the fact that Muslim Azerbaijani and Armenian Christians have peacefully coexisted together for ages; they engaged in violent armed confrontations at the beginning of the twentieth century, which both peoples still recall and ignites strife. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, rage erupted between the Armenians and Azeris. The Azeris left Nagorno-Karabakh region and Armenia whereas Armenians immigrated from Azerbaijan. The Nagorno-Karabakh region declared its independence in 1991, and this declaration was not recognized by any country, including Armenia.
The dispute between the two countries reached the stage of armed confrontation in 1991 and lasted till 1994, which resulted in destruction, killing of thousands and nearly one million refugees. Then, the Armenian forces managed to control Nagorno-Karabakh and occupied surrounding areas forming about 21% of the Azerbaijani territories, under the pretext of establishing a security belt around the region. In May 1994, the two sides reached a ceasefire agreement, with the mediation of Russia and the Inter-Parliamentary Assembly of the Commonwealth of Independent States Member Nations (IPA CIS). This agreement was valid throughout the past years, without disengagement or peacekeeping forces in the region.
The efforts of settling the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute within the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group were launched in synchronization with this truce. The group has later endorsed what is known as the “Madrid Principles” in 2007, as a foundation for resolving the dispute. These Principles are chiefly based on returning the Nagorno-Karabakh neighboring territories to the Azerbaijani control, allowing the return of refugees and displaced to their homeland and giving an interim status to the region, provided that a referendum would determine the final status. However, international efforts to settle the dispute in Nagorno-Karabakh were in vain, which turned this issue into one of the many stagnating disputes in South Caucasus and the Caspian Sea.
Reasons behind renewal of confrontations
Despite the fundamental motives behind the eruption of battles between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh in early April are still highly obscure; several explanations have surfaced to clarify the issue. One of these explanations is that the military escalation in the region comes within the framework of “proxy wars” and the growing tension and lethargy between Russia – that enjoys good relations with Armenia - and Turkey the traditional ally of Azerbaijan. Russian-Turkish relations are witnessing one of their worst periods, especially after Ankara shot down a Russian military jet near the Syrian borders in November 2015, which was then considered a Turkish declaration of war on Russia because of the latter’s direct military intervention to support the Bashar al-Assad regime.
It is worth mentioning that Azerbaijan has strong relations with Turkey. In 2011, the two states reached a strategic partnership and mutual support agreement. This agreement stipulates that each country supports the other by “all possible means” in case one of them was subjected to attack or aggression. In 2013, the Azeri President Ilham Aliyev paid his first visit to Turkey after winning his third presidential term. Moreover, the military cooperation between the two countries has notably grown in the past few years, and exchanging senior level military delegations has become the usual. Azerbaijan has also purchased UMTAS and OTMAS anti-tanks missiles from Turkey in January 2014.
On the other hand, Armenia has stable relations with Russia on the military and economic levels. The Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan reached a number of bilateral defense agreements with Moscow. Sargsyan also decided on his country’s accession to the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). In 2013, Armenia ignored the European Union’s invitation to become a participant member and instead chose to join the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), which is also led by Russia. In last February, Russia offered Armenia a US$200 million loan to finance the purchase of new weaponry.
Recently, Moscow has deployed its new MiG-29 fighters in Erebuni military base in Armenia near the Turkish borders. It seems that this specific development has provoked Ankara in particular; which prompted the latter to urge Azerbaijan to escalate tensions with Armenia –the Russian ally- to place more pressure on Russia to get involved in the Azeri-Armenian dispute on Nagorno-Karabakh.
Another explanation for the escalation of the latest military confrontations in Nagorno-Karabakh is that Azerbaijan, under the leadership of President Ilham Aliyev, began to show a tendency to settle this dispute militarily; especially after gaining confidence during the past decade due to its military budget increasing by 300 times its original amount. In 2015, this budget was about US$3.6 billion, while Armenia’s budget did not exceed US$500 million.
In addition to the confidence garnered as a result of growing military capabilities, the eruption of the dispute again in Nagorno-Karabakh might be a tool used by the decision makers in Baku to evoke the Azeri national sentiments. Thus, distracting the Azerbaijani citizens from the deteriorating economic and social conditions; as the Azeri economy has recently been affected by the global decline in oil prices, as the economy highly depends on exporting oil from the Caspian Sea.
Stances surrounding recent events
The Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense announced, from the capital city Baku, that the ministry decided to accept the ceasefire, in response to the unrelenting requests from the institutions of the international community. The Defense Ministry also warned that the offensive operations, the liberation of the “occupied” territories and restoration of state’s territorial integrity shall continue in case the forces in Nagorno-Karabakh continued the provocative raids on Azeri villages. Baku also called on the international community to call on Armenia to withdraw from all the “occupied” Azerbaijani territories and manifest a constructive stance in the process of the political settlement of the dispute.
The Armenian Ministry of Defense asserted that the confrontations are still on at several axes along the contact line in Nagorno-Karabakh region; pointing out that the forces have stood up to the Azeri troops’ offensive, and later waged a counter-attack during which it controlled some strategically significant villages in the region. At this time, some news agencies circulated reports from the Armenian capital Yerevan about dispatching voluntary groups to fight along the contact line between the Azerbaijani and Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh.
As for Moscow, the return of armed confrontations between the Armenian and Azerbaijani sides is considered as a source of major concern, as it threatens the stability and security on its direct borders in the Caucasus region and the Caspian basin. Placing Russia in an awkward situation with its ally Armenia, where one of the most important Russian military bases in the Caucasus is deployed. Thus, Russia hastened to call on the Azeris and Armenians to adopt self-restraint and stop combat operations immediately.
The Russian stance was widely welcomed by France, the United States, and the three states – forming the Minsk Group - called for an immediate ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh, avoiding escalation and resuming the political trajectory to resolve the conflict. The three states also pointed out that envoys would be sent to each country, and the region as well to address the dispute peacefully. In the midst of international endeavors to stop the military confrontation and return to the truce, the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan made a remarkable statement. Erdoğan said that Nagorno-Karabakh “will return someday” to “whom it originally belongs, to Azerbaijan”, and that Turkey will support Azerbaijan “till the end”.
As for the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), in which Azerbaijan is a member, it denounced the offensive of the Armenian troops on the borders of the Azerbaijani territories, their insistence on resuming combat, their disrespect of the truce and continuation of hostile policies. OIC Secretary General Iyad bin Amin Madani called for “an immediate, unconditional and full withdrawal of the Armenian forces from the region and the other occupied Azerbaijani territories”. Madani also called on the Minsk Group “to reach an urgent political settlement to the Azerbaijani-Armenian dispute based on the Azerbaijani Republic territorial integrity and respect for its internationally recognized borders, according to the principles of International Law”.
A truce at stake
The recently reached ceasefire agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia in Nagorno-Karabakh seems very fragile due to many factors; of which are the Turkish and Russian intervention in the conflict and the economic difficulties in Azerbaijan. In addition to the hardline positions of both countries, the most significant of which was the Azeri Minister of Defense Zakir Hasanov’s warning that the Azerbaijani forces might wage a major offensive on the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh, Stepanakert if the separatists did not cease raiding the Azeri territories. The Armenian President Sargsyan’s also declared that Armenia shall continue to provide security for Nagorno-Karabakh, threatened the possible recognition of the region as an independent state and form a military alliance together, if combat escalated in the future.
Undoubtedly, the return of the war specter in Nagorno-Karabakh would be a real threat to security and stability, not only in the South Caucasus region but also the European continent that depends on this region for most of its oil and natural gas imports. This war could also be a new place of interest for terrorist and extremist powers, at a time where the war on ISIS is yet to be resolved.
